Presenter: J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, Aalborg University

Title: Global Warming Acceleration: Is Temperature Rising Faster Than Linearly?

Abstract:

This paper investigates whether global temperature exhibits acceleration; defined as a supralinear, or greater than linear, increase over time. We test for supralinear trends and find empirical evidence supporting temperature acceleration. The results are robust to estimation period and temperature data source used in the analysis. Temperature has been modelled as having a structural break around 1980, we demonstrate that standard break‑point tests will detect a break with probability one when the underlying data follow a supralinear trend. Moreover, we show that effective radiative forcings and CO2 emissions also display supralinear trends, providing a climate‑science rationale for the observed temperature acceleration. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of climate change.

Coordinators: Mikkel Sølvsten and Morten Ørregaard Nielsen
https://econ.au.dk/ace