Speaker: Martin Salm, Tilburg University

Title: Preventive behavior and learning about crime risk: evidence from moving house (with Ben Vollaard, Tilburg University)

Abstract: We examine the learning process how individuals adjust to a change in the risk of crime. Specifically, we examine how victimization rates, perceptions of crime risks, and prevention behaviors evolve in the months and years after a move to a new municipality. We compare individuals who have moved to the same municipality at different points of time, based on data from a large national survey on victimization in the Netherlands, merged with administrative records on current and previous places of residence. Victimization rates for property crimes and bicycle thefts substantially decrease with time since move for a period of up to 9 years. The decrease in crime rates over time is much stronger for individuals who moved from a less risky location than for people who moved from a more risky location. We also find that risk perceptions become less positive with time since move, and precautionary measures increase. Our findings suggest that people tend to be too optimistic at the outset, and take too little precaution, but slowly adapt their behavior over time.

Organizer: Alexander Koch