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CEFAU Brief: AI and Its Impact on Jobs, Skill Requirements, and Wages

Marie Møller Kjeldsen — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 13:50:38 +0200

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being used in Danish workplaces. A peer-reviewed research article, co-authored by CEFAU researchers Michael Koch and Sarah Schroeder, shows that AI may affect the labor market in a fundamentally different way than previous technological advances. Unlike robots, AI does not primarily impact the labor market by replacing existing jobs or creating new ones. Instead, AI changes the composition of tasks within AI-exposed jobsand this can have large, heterogeneous effects on wages and skill requirements. If companiesand the broader economyare to reap the potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence, it requires continuous upskilling and training.

The key takeaways of this research brief are:

With a threefold increase over two years, the use of artificial intelligence is rapidly expanding among Danish companies
Robots and artificial intelligence affect very different groups in the labor market
Robots replace jobs; artificial intelligence changes job content
The results indicate a statistically significant positive effect on wages from increased exposure to artificial intelligence
AI's effect on wages is not uniform. Employees working in knowledge-intensive servicessuch as accountants, architects, or programmersexperience an average decline in wages, while lower-educated workers on average experience wage increases
AI is also associated with wage decreases for employees whose job content has changed significantly, but who have remained in the same position
ChatGPT has not led to a decline in the total number of jobs, but there has been a significant drop in employment among young people in professions highly exposed to artificial intelligence. In contrast, employment among workers over 50 has increased in AI-exposed professions following the launch of ChatGPT
The greatest risk of AI is not job lossbut a mismatch between tasks, skills, and wages
Education and continuous training in the use of AI are crucial if companies are to take advantage of the productivity improvements that artificial intelligence offers.

The research brief contextualizes and describes the findings in a Danish setting based on the article: Engberg, E., M. Koch, M. Lodefalk, and S. Schroeder (2025): Artificial intelligence, tasks, skills, and wages: Worker-level evidence from Germany. Research Policy, 54(8), 105285.

The research brief can be read here (in Danish).

CEFAU Brief: Proposal for an Alternative Benefit Indexation Mechanism that Ensures a More Stable Real Income for Recipients of Transfer Payments

Marie Møller Kjeldsen — Fri, 23 Jan 2026 16:19:42 +0100

In recent times, grocery prices have been a topic of debate. Many Danes experience that their everyday shopping has become more expensive which has led to political proposals for differentiated VAT and temporary food vouchers. Part of the background for these political proposals is that the real income of transferpayment recipients declined in connection with the surge in inflation in 2022 and has still not returned to its previous level. This policy note proposes an alternative indexation model under which the real income of transferpayment recipients would not experience prolonged declines the next time inflation jumps.

The analysis shows that:

In the event of sudden increases in inflation, there may be a prolonged decline in the real income of transferpayment recipients. This is due to the current indexation method. This has direct consequences for recipients of transfers, but also affects the overall economy as weaker private consumption can contribute to lower overall economic activity.
We propose a new indexation method that takes into account the expected development in inflation in the coming year. Current and wellfounded inflation forecasts are crucial to the methods ability to protect the real income of transferpayment recipients against unintended declines.
Had the proposed indexation method been in effect from 2020, transferpayment recipients would not have experienced as large or as prolonged a decline in real income during the inflation surge in 2022 as occurred under the current adjustment mechanism.
By basing indexation on expected inflation combined with a correction for previous forecast errors, it is possible to ensure that transfers develop over time in the same way as they do today. The proposed method does not change the total level of payments, only their timing.
Under certain reasonable assumptions, the proposed method can be implemented without requiring phasein periods or transitional arrangements.

The proposal can be read here.

CEFAU Brief: Danish SMEs' Exports to the United States in a New TradePolicy Reality

Tine Jeppesen — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 10:34:41 +0100

The US is one of Denmark's most important export markets also for Danish SMEs. With the new American trade policy, tariffs on a wide range of EU goods have increased significantly, and despite an agreement between the U.S. and the EU on future trade relations, uncertainty remains high.

In a new CEFAU brief, we examine Danish SMEs' export exposure to the United States in the light of the new trade policy realities.

The analysis shows:

In 2024, the United States was the fifthlargest export market for Danish SMEs, and the number of SMEs exporting to the U.S. increased steadily from 2015 to 2024
Compared to larger firms, Danish SMEs' exports from Denmark to the U.S. are particularly concentrated in sectors with a lower likelihood of tariff exemptions
SMEs are more vulnerable to rising trade costs than larger firms. They typically have fewer options for bypassing tariff barriers, for example through local production, and they often operate in fewer export markets making it more difficult to redirect exports elsewhere
However, only a small share of Danish SMEs with direct exports to the U.S. export a large proportion of their total exports to the U.S
Overall, the analysis indicates that SMEs are particularly exposed to the new U.S. trade policy direction, but the overall consequences for Danish exports will be limited. This is because SMEs account for a relatively small share of Denmark's total exports to the U.S., and because only a limited number of SMEs are strongly exposed to the American market
One way to support individual SMEs exporting to the U.S is through exportpromotion initiatives for example, advisory services on U.S. tariff and export regulations to reduce uncertainty, as well as assistance in identifying new markets.

Read more here

CEFAU Brief: How Do Sanctions Affect Our Own Exporters?

Malene Vindfeldt Skals — Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:53:15 +0200

Two new peer-reviewed research articles by CEFAU researchers Ina Jäkel and Saskia Meuchelböck shed light on an important question: What happens to our own exporting firms when we impose sanctions on other countries? Although the decision is made at the political level, it is often the firms that must adapt to new conditions and navigate a changed reality.

The findings show that exporters typically reduce their exports to the affected countries - even when their products are not directly subject to the sanctions. The impact on a firm's economic performance largely depends on how exposed the firm is to the sanctioned markets. Therefore, it is important to have a clear picture of which firms and sectors are potentially affected - even when sanctions only target specific individuals, entities, or products.

Similarly, it may also be beneficial to enhance existing export-support initiatives, such as advisory services and guidance for companies, when implementing new sanctions to reduce indirect effects.

Today, we are publishing a CEFAU Research Brief based on Ina's and Saskia's articles. The Research Brief provides perspective and describes the findings from peer-reviewed research. Here are three key take-aways:

Sanctions also affect the exports of products that are not directly covered by the sanctions
Sanctions come in many different formsfrom export bans to travel restrictionsand their effects vary across countries depending on the type and purpose of the sanctions
The impact of sanctions on the economic performance of exporters largely depends on how exposed they are to the sanctioned markets.

CEFAU Brief: Corporate Mergers Increase Macroeconomic Volatility

Marie Møller Kjeldsen — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 15:50:00 +0200

When authorities assess whether a corporate merger can be approved, they primarily consider how the merger affects competition in the market where the merging firms operate. However, new peer-reviewed research by CEFAU researcher Jackie M.L. Chan shows that corporate mergers also make the overall economy more volatile. Larger business cycle fluctuations impact firms, households, and public finances alike. Policymakers and competition authorities should therefore be aware that, beyond the effects on market competition, mergers may also have broader implications for economic stability.

Today, we are publishing a CEFAU Research Brief based on Jackie's article which summarizes and contextualizes the findings. Key takeaways include:

Corporate mergers increase volatility in the overall Danish economy
Mergers may, however, make the involved firms more stable
Firms that engage in mergers are significantly larger than other firms.

The brief explains how the results were derived and why they are relevant for policymakers and competition authorities.